Figuring out postseason
possibilities throughout Division 1
- next: Washington State @ #5 Washington | November 29 | 8PM |Pac-12 Networks
- NCAA Tournament Selection | December 1 | 6:30PM | ESPNU
One team will be a serious tournament contender. The other
will likely be ending its season. But the final match of the Pac-12 2013 season—Washington State at Washington—will
have plenty on the line.
How many UW and WSU fans will head to Hec Ed after the Apple Cup? -photo by Shutter Geeks Photography |
NCAA TOURNAMENT SEEDING AND THE RPI
This Sunday, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will
choose 64 teams, then seed the top 16. Those 16 will each host the tournament’s
first two rounds. Rounds 3 & 4—the Regionals—will be hosted by USC, Nebraska [in Omaha Lincoln], Illinois
and Kentucky; four seeded teams will
be assigned to each Regional bracket. Rounds 5 & 6—the Final Four—will be hosted by Washington
at Seattle’s Key Arena.
There are 31 Division 1 conferences, and the champions of
each get automatic bids. The remaining 33 at-large teams—and the 16 seeds—will
be determined by a variety of factors, none more important than the RPI. The RPI, or “Ratings Percentage
Index,” is a formula that gives a team’s win/loss percentage 25% weight, a team’s
opponents’ win/loss percentage 50% weight, and a team’s opponents’ opponents’
win/loss percentage 25% weight. Each Division 1 team is ranked 1 through 332.
Importantly, an opponent’s RPI is NOT a factor, only its winning percentage. [see also: NCAA RPI explanation]
WASHINGTON’S SEEDING
On Monday of this week, Washington’s RPI was #3, trailing
only #1 Texas and #2 Penn State. The Huskies have just two
losses, and one of the top winning percentages in the nation (after #20 Colorado State lost Wednesday night to #105
San Diego State, #5 Missouri is the only undefeated team in
the nation.) If UW loses to WSU, its RPI will take a hit. It could drop slightly
in any event, because this week’s opponents—#136 Oregon State (9-21) and #65 Washington
State (18-14) have relatively weak records, and each played fairly low-ranked
nonconference opponents. Washington, by the way, benefits each time one of its
nonconference opponents picks up a win, and got an extra boost with #17 Illinois’ resurgence (and its tough
schedule), plus better-than-expected seasons from #215 Seattle U (13-20) and #250 Coppin
State (15-16).
THE TOP FOUR SEEDS
#1 Texas and #2 Penn State have all but wrapped up two
of the Regional #1 seeds, though Penn State still plays #8 Nebraska Saturday night in Lincoln. If Washington defeats WSU, it
should earn a third #1; if it loses, and #7 Stanford beats #30 Cal,
then the Cardinal will likely grab that #1. The fourth top seed should go to
undefeated Missouri, but Florida—who Mizzou defeated twice—has
the higher RPI, 4 to 5. How is that possible? Florida’s only other loss is to
Penn State; almost every preseason, Florida, Penn State, Texas and Stanford
play each other and eventually benefit from that opponent’s win/loss percentage
bump.
SEEDS 5-8
The top eight teams should be some combination of Texas, Penn State, Washington, Missouri, Stanford, Florida, USC and Nebraska.
SEEDS 9-16
The “second eight” seeded teams are sure to include #9 Kentucky, #13 Minnesota and #12 Kansas.
#10 Marquette will join them if it
wins the Big East tournament. #11 Hawai’i may fall in this group, but
despite its RPI of 11, it won’t be conference champ for the first time in what
seems like forever (#59 UC Santa Barbara
has the inside track.) The NCAA is also historically reluctant to have teams
fly to Honolulu. Wisconsin’s RPI is
14, but it has 8 Big Ten losses and few attention-getting wins. San Diego has the 15th RPI, and Creighton is 16th, but both
would have to resolve scheduling conflicts with their basketball teams if
either were to host. #17 Illinois
might be an appealing seed to the NCAA, since the Regionals will also be in
Champaign the following week. #18 Duke
might also make a case as the (likely) ACC
champion.
BEST OF THE REST
One advantage of being one of the four top seeds is the
chance to avoid difficult early-round matchups. Washington almost always hosts,
but its lower seed in previous seasons has helped the NCAA justify sending a
powerhouse like Hawai’i to Seattle (Washington won each time, but it took five
sets in 2012.)
Because there are no seeds beyond the top 16, the Committee
can send other top teams almost wherever it wants. Since at least three—Washington,
Stanford and USC—west coast schools will host, with another two—Hawai’i and San
Diego—possible, dangerous non-seeded teams could come from almost anywhere. Two
will likely come from the San Diego/Creighton/Illinois/Duke quartet (whichever
two don’t host). Other big names could include #19 Florida State, #29 Colorado
State, #21 North Carolina, #29 Purdue and #31 BYU. The committee will not, by the way, send conference schools
against each other in the first two rounds, so #24 Arizona, #25 Oregon, #26
Utah and #30 Cal will not be in Seattle.
Washington State may be well beyond the bubble at #65, especially after its loss Wednesday to Oregon. In some ways, then, their rivalry match against Washington is a way to end the season with a bang. WSU is 19-14, with recent upset wins against USC and Cal. The Cougars would like to reach the 20-win benchmark. They also know that, in recent years, UW teams have let down at home late in the year, losing to Arizona State last season, and to Oregon a few years back.
And, don't forget, plenty of WSU fans will have spent much of the day next door at Husky Stadium for football's Apple Cup ... and may just want to join the crowd at Hec Ed.
NOT SO BEST OF THE REST
Who might seeded teams like to see in their gym? Underperforming teams with high RPIs include #22 Iowa State, #23 Oklahoma, #27 Michigan State
and #28 Michigan. A big chunk of SEC teams with unimpressive records
have somehow managed decent RPIs, including #32 Texas A&M, #33 Alabama,
#34 LSU, #37 Arkansas and #40 Georgia.
LOW RPI AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS
When figuring out which 64 teams will be selected, you can’t
simply look at RPIs 1 through 64. That’s because the champions of several
conferences have weaker RPIs, but are nonetheless guaranteed a slot. This
season, that will be the case with 16 teams, from #68 College of Charleston all the way through #278 Alabama State. [See chart, below] The champion of the Big Sky Conference—to be determined
Saturday—won’t have an RPI higher than 84.
So, when doing the math, teams with an RPI worse than 48 that
are not conference champs are on the bubble. That group includes #49 Ohio State (which in no way deserves a
bid after losing at least 14 conference matches,) #51 Miami (coached by Keno
Gandara, formerly a UW assistant), and #54 Colorado (one of only two teams to defeat Washington so far this
season). If any team does push through, it could be at the expense of #48 Arizona State.
A real head-scratcher is #42 UCLA. The Bruins have had a dreadful season, and could finish at
15-15—barely meeting the .500 threshold required for an at-large bid. Both Arizona State and Colorado will finish ahead of UCLA in the conference standings, but
either one could be out and the Bruins in.
THE LIST
Here, then, are the RPI rankings as of November 25. A new
list will be compiled Sunday, and there will undoubtedly be some movement,
although likely not more than 3-4 places.
Teams in green
have clinched an automatic bid. Teams in orange
have clinched at least a share of their conference title. Teams in red are still mathematically in the
running to tie or win their conference title. Teams in yellow are still playing in their conference tournament (only the
highest-RPI teams still playing in tournaments are included.
RPI
|
School
|
Conference
|
1
|
Texas
|
Big 12
|
2
|
Penn St
|
Big Ten
|
3
|
Washington
|
Pac-12
|
4
|
Florida
|
SEC
|
5
|
Missouri
|
SEC
|
6
|
Southern
Cal
|
Pac-12
|
7
|
Stanford
|
Pac-12
|
8
|
Nebraska
|
Big Ten
|
9
|
Kentucky
|
SEC
|
10
|
Marquette
|
Big East
|
11
|
Hawai’i
|
Big West
|
12
|
Kansas
|
Big 12
|
13
|
Minnesota
|
Big Ten
|
14
|
Wisconsin
|
Big Ten
|
15
|
San Diego
|
West Coast
|
16
|
Creighton
|
Big East
|
17
|
Illinois
|
Big Ten
|
18
|
Duke
|
ACC
|
19
|
Florida St
|
ACC
|
20
|
Colorado
St
|
Mountain
West
|
21
|
North
Carolina
|
ACC
|
22
|
Iowa St
|
Big 12
|
23
|
Oklahoma
|
Big 12
|
24
|
Arizona
|
Pac-12
|
25
|
Oregon
|
Pac-12
|
26
|
Utah
|
Pac-12
|
27
|
Michigan
St
|
Big Ten
|
28
|
Michigan
|
Big Ten
|
29
|
Purdue
|
Big Ten
|
30
|
California
|
Pac-12
|
31
|
BYU
|
West Coast
|
32
|
Texas
A&M
|
SEC
|
33
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
34
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
35
|
Ohio
|
Mid-American
|
36
|
Louisville
|
American
Athletic
|
37
|
Arkansas
|
SEC
|
38
|
CS
Northridge
|
Big West
|
39
|
Tulsa
|
Conference
USA
|
40
|
Georgia
|
SEC
|
41
|
Butler
|
Big East
|
42
|
UCLA
|
Pac-12
|
43
|
Yale
|
Ivy
|
44
|
American
|
Patriot
|
45
|
Central
Arkansas
|
Southland
|
46
|
Wichita St
|
Missouri
Valley
|
47
|
UTSA
|
Conference
USA
|
48
|
Arizona St
|
Pac-12
|
49
|
Ohio St
|
Big Ten
|
50
|
Colgate
|
Patriot
|
51
|
Miami
|
ACC
|
52
|
North
Carolina St
|
ACC
|
53
|
Xavier
|
Big East
|
54
|
Colorado
|
Pac-12
|
55
|
UNI
|
Missouri
Valley
|
56
|
Tulane
|
Conference
USA
|
57
|
Northwestern
|
Big Ten
|
58
|
Kansas St
|
Big 12
|
59
|
UCSB
|
Big West
|
60
|
Western
Kentucky
|
Sun Belt
|
61
|
St Mary’s
|
West Coast
|
62
|
Virginia
Tech
|
ACC
|
63
|
Auburn
|
SEC
|
64
|
VCU
|
Atlantic
10
|
65
|
Washington
St
|
Pac-12
|
66
|
Ball St
|
Mid-American
|
67
|
Virginia
|
ACC
|
68
|
Col of
Charleston
|
Colonial
|
70
|
Lipscomb
|
Atlantic
Sun
|
73
|
Georgia Southern
|
Southern
|
79
|
Milwaukee
|
Horizon
|
84
|
Portland St
|
Big Sky
|
87
|
LIU
Brooklyn
|
Northeast
|
91
|
Morehead
St
|
Ohio
Valley
|
94
|
New Mexico
St
|
WAC
|
96
|
Jacksonville
|
Atlantic
Sun
|
98
|
Duquesne
|
Atlantic
10
|
104
|
Texas St
|
Sun Belt
|
109
|
IUPUI
|
Summit
|
156
|
Fairfield
|
Metro
Atlantic
|
159
|
Radford
|
Big South
|
190
|
Hampton
|
Mid-Eastern
|
205
|
New
Hampshire
|
America
East
|
278
|
Alabama St
|
Southwestern
|
Photos courtesy Shutter
Geeks Photography
Nebraska is hosting in Lincoln.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Mike, for catching that. Correction made and noted ...
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