Pac-12 Preview

Every preseason, Pac-12 volleyball coaches belly up to a buffet of potential nonconference opponents. The available competition ranges from pitiful to powerful, and each coach faces a choice: Pad your record and build confidence? Or toss the team in the fire to harden it for grueling conference play?

Cupcakes or cuisine?

Most seasons, including this one, Washington coach Jim McLaughlin turns down invitations to compete early on against national powers. Figuring his players will get plenty of tough competition from the likes of Stanford, Cal, UCLA and USC, he tends to treat the preseason as a time for teaching and tinkering. UW’s eight nonconference matches featured just one ranked opponent, #22 Long Beach State (a 3-1 UW victory in the 49ers’ gym.)

Other Pac-12 teams took a similar path, including Cal, Utah, Colorado, WSU, Oregon State and Arizona State. Arizona’s only loss was against its only top opponent (swept by Hawai’i in Honolulu.)

Three conference teams took on at least two national powers:

·         USC—ranked #2 in the initial national poll—started by barely beating current #9 Minnesota. The Trojans then dropped a squeaker to previously top-ranked Penn State before being whipped 3-0 by UCF (Central Florida.)

·         Oregon shocked the volleyball world by demolishing four-time defending national champion Penn State, snapping the Nittany Lions’ monumental home court win streak at 94. The next night, the Ducks lost to Minnesota in five sets.

·         Undefeated Stanford dropped several sets, but secured home victories over both Penn State and #7 Florida.

Overall, the Pac-12 won 80 percent of its nonconference matches (79-20, with one left to be played, Cal Poly @ Oregon tonight) and 70 percent of its sets (252-104). Four of this week’s top six teams in the AVCA national poll—#1 Cal, #2 Stanford, #4 Washington, #6 Stanford—are from the Pac-12, and there is a good argument that #3 Illinois and #5 Penn State are both ranked too high.

So what have we learned?

The conference championship is up for grabs, perhaps as never before, and as many as 7 or 8 teams might have a reasonable shot at a tournament bid.

TITLE CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA, STANFORD, WASHINGTON, UCLA

In head-to-head meetings among these four, the home team should be a slight favorite. The team that wins the most road matches against the other three may win the conference.

POSTSEASON PROBABLES: OREGON, USC, ARIZONA

The Ducks have an outside chance to compete for the league title, but need to shake a history of near-misses. USC has stumbled early, losing at home to UCLA last Friday, and playing the season without academically ineligible Falyn Fonoimoana, the 2010 Freshman of the Year. Arizona should get an upset or two plus enough wins from the also-rans to slip into the NCAA tournament.

WORKING TO REMAIN RELEVANT: WSU, OREGON STATE, ARIZONA STATE, UTAH, COLORADO

WSU and Oregon State each had good preseasons against fair competition (OSU beat Long Beach State in Long Beach.) ASU will struggle, as will the two newest entries in the league, Utah and Colorado.