Sweet 16: Who got it right?

Teeth were gnashing at this time last week, as prognosticators wailed about the NCAA Selection Committee’s 16 seeds. Lots of folks figured they could do a better job; many at least figured the AVCA Coaches’ poll would have been a better guide.

Turns out, everyone’s top 16 picks were a mess after the first two rounds.

NCAA Selection Committee		AVCA Coaches’ Poll		VBM Media Poll		Volleyblog Seattle
1	Texas	1	USC	1	USC	1	USC
2	Nebraska	2	Nebraska	2	Nebraska	2	Purdue
3	Illinois	3	Hawaii	3	Texas	3	Penn State
4	Iowa State	4	UCLA	4	Hawaii	4	UCLA
5	Purdue	5	Texas	5	UCLA	5	Texas
6	Northern Iowa	6	Stanford	6	Stanford	6	Nebraska
7	USC	7	Illinois	7	Purdue	7	Illinois
8	Penn State	8	Purdue	8	Illinois	8	Washington
9	UCLA	9	Penn State	9	Penn State	9	Stanford
10	Hawaii	10	California	10	California	10	California
11	Stanford	11	Washington	11	Northern Iowa	11	Oregon
12	Florida St	12	Northern Iowa	12	Washington	12	Hawaii
13	Minnesota	13	Oregon	13	Oregon	13	Northern Iowa
14	Tennessee	14	Iowa State	14	Iowa State	14	Pepperdine
15	Pepperdine	15	Tennessee	15	Tennessee	15	Iowa State
16	Texas A&M	16	Kentucky	16	Pepperdine	16	Tennessee

On its face, the NCAA selection committee appeared to do the best, picking 11 of the Sweet 16. The AVCA Coaches Poll and the Volleyball Magazine Media Poll both got just 9 of the 16, mostly because the Pac-12 fell flat.

Big caveat here: The most recent coaches’ poll was published a full week before the end of the season. AVCA—apparently not wanting to second-guess the NCAA—chose not to report a season-ending poll. Coaches, therefore, had no chance to weigh in on final-weekend losses by Nebraska, Stanford, Oregon and Iowa State.

Second big caveat: the Selection Committee has a huge advantage in this comparison, since it got to pair its highest seeds against the weakest competition. If coaches or media had been permitted to seed, then at least a few teams (like California, Oregon and Washington) would have faced different, possibly easier, opponents the first weekend and therefore might have advanced.

Notice that everyone left Ohio State, Michigan, Florida and Kansas State out of their top 16, and all four advanced (the first three in the same Gainesville bracket.)

Everyone has six of their top eight teams still in contention. At most, however, the coaches and media will have only two in the Final Four, since the committee put USC and Hawai’i in the same region.

Finally, Volleyblog Seattle has all five of its top picks still in the running, and 6 of its top 7 (the others have 5 of 7.) At most, though, only three of our top four can get to San Antonio, since the committee put both UCLA and Penn State in the Lexington region.

LEXINGTON				GAINESVILLE
Kentucky (28-5)	SEC		Big Ten	Ohio St (21-14)
#1 Texas (24-4)	Big-12		Big Ten	#3 Illinois (29-4)
#9 UCLA (26-6)	Pac-12		Big Ten	Michigan (22-12)
#8 Penn St (25-7)	Big Ten		SEC	Florida (26-5)
#12 Florida St (26-7)	ACC		WAC	#10 Hawai’i (31-1)
#5 Purdue (29-4)	Big Ten		Pac-12	#7 USC (27-4)
#13 Minnesota (20-11)	Big Ten		WCC	#15 Pepperdine (23-6)
#4 Iowa St (24-5)	Big 12		Big 12	Kansas St (20-10)
MINNEAPOLIS				HONOLULU

[Volleyblog Seattle photo by Leslie Hamann]