Saturday, November 24, 2012

NCAA | Selection Sunday Bracketology


Here’s how Volleyblog Seattle sees it. Will the committee agree?


Today at 1PM on ESPNU, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will announce the 2012 Division 1 playoff brackets.

Only the Top 16 teams will be seeded; those 16 will host the first two rounds.

We can save the committee a lot of time; here’s Volleyblog Seattle’s Top 16:


School

Significant Wins
All Losses
 (*bad loss)
1
Penn State
29-2
Louisville, Stanford, Texas, Minnesota (2), Western Kentucky, Purdue (2), Ohio St
*Oregon St, Nebraska
2
Stanford
27-3
Florida, Oregon (2), USC, UCLA (2), Washington (2)
*Hawai’i, Penn St, USC
3
Oregon
23-4
Ohio St, USC, Washington, UCLA
Stanford (2), Cal, Washington
4
Washington
23-6
Purdue, UCLA, USC, Oregon
Oregon, Stanford (2), USC, UCLA, *Arizona St
5
USC
27-5
San Diego, UCLA, Washington, Stanford
Oregon, Washington, Stanford, *Arizona St, UCLA
6
UCLA
22-7
Hawai’i, Washington, USC
Nebraska, USC, Washington, Stanford (2), *Arizona, Oregon
7
Nebraska
23-6
UCLA, Michigan St, Purdue (2), Minnesota, Penn St
Iowa St, Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota
8
Texas
23-4
San Diego, Florida, Minnesota,  Louisville, Kansas (2), Iowa St
Penn St, Minnesota, *Illinois, Iowa St
9
Minnesota
24-7
Texas, Dayton, Michigan St, Purdue, Ohio St, Nebraska
Texas, *Kansas St, Penn St (2), Nebraska, Michigan St, Michigan
10
Florida State
27-3
Iowa St, Ohio St, Florida, Miami
*Pepperdine, Miami, *North Carolina
11
Hawai’i
26-2
Stanford
*California, UCLA
12
Louisville
29-3
Purdue, Western Kentucky
Penn St, *Notre Dame, Texas
13
Florida
25-4
--
Texas, Stanford, Florida St, *Tennessee
14
Miami (FL)
25-5
Florida St
*Illinois St, Lousiville, *Virginia Tech, *North Carolina, Florida St
15
BYU
26-3
San Diego
*St Mary’s, Santa Clara, *San Diego St
16
San Diego
21-6
BYU
Texas, USC, *St  Mary’s, Santa Clara, BYU


Yes, Washington looks like a high pick, but remember that—in just the past three weeks, Washington beat Oregon, Oregon beat UCLA, UCLA beat USC, USC beat Stanford and Stanford beat Washington. With few exceptions, those five teams only lose to each other.

If the committee used our rankings, here’s how the teams would be paired if they advance to the Sweet 16:
1
Penn St
16
San Diego
8
Texas
9
Minnesota

2
Stanford
15
BYU
7
Nebraska
10
Florida State

3
Oregon
14
Miami
6
UCLA
11
Hawai’i

4
Washington
13
Florida
5
USC
12
Louisville

Perhaps you see the problem. This year’s regionals (selected years in advance) are in West Lafayette, Indiana, Berkeley, Austin and Omaha. Of our top four picks, only #2 Stanford is near one of the sites (Berkeley). There is no way, however, the committee won’t place Nebraska in Omaha and Texas in Austin.

Taking reality into consideration, here is our compromise seeding:
W Lafayette
1
Penn St
16
San Diego
8
Florida St
9
Minnesota

Berkeley
2
Stanford
15
BYU
7
USC
10
Hawai’i

Austin
3
Oregon
14
Miami
6
Texas
11
UCLA

Omaha
4
Washington
13
Florida
5
Nebraska
12
Louisville

Let’s make it clear, however:
  • There is absolutely no way the committee will seed Washington as high as #4.
  • It will likely make the mistake it made last year and give too many Big-12 teams good seeds (especially underserving Kansas and probably Iowa State.)
  • It will likely overlook either BYU or San Diego or both in the top 16. No way it will include Miami.
  • It will rank Louisville and Hawai’i too high, and several Pac-12 schools too low

Last season, by the way, only one of the committee’s top four seeds (#3 Illinois) reached the Final Four. Can it do better this year?

Will Washington's Gabbi Parker be staring down another home match in 2012?
-Volleyblog Seattle photo by Leslie Hamann

1 comment:

  1. politics again. Of course, this theorizing wouldn't be happening if UW had taken care of business against ASU. I realize Krista VS was out, but it also was the night the team didn't show up mentally.

    ReplyDelete

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