NCAA | Selection Sunday Bracketology

Here’s how Volleyblog Seattle sees it. Will the committee agree?

Today at 1PM on ESPNU, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will announce the 2012 Division 1 playoff brackets.

Only the Top 16 teams will be seeded; those 16 will host the first two rounds.

We can save the committee a lot of time; here’s Volleyblog Seattle’s Top 16:

	School		Significant Wins	All Losses  (*bad loss)
1	Penn State	29-2	Louisville, Stanford, Texas, Minnesota (2), Western Kentucky, Purdue (2), Ohio St	*Oregon St, Nebraska
2	Stanford	27-3	Florida, Oregon (2), USC, UCLA (2), Washington (2)	*Hawai’i, Penn St, USC
3	Oregon	23-4	Ohio St, USC, Washington, UCLA	Stanford (2), Cal, Washington
4	Washington	23-6	Purdue, UCLA, USC, Oregon	Oregon, Stanford (2), USC, UCLA, *Arizona St
5	USC	27-5	San Diego, UCLA, Washington, Stanford	Oregon, Washington, Stanford, *Arizona St, UCLA
6	UCLA	22-7	Hawai’i, Washington, USC	Nebraska, USC, Washington, Stanford (2), *Arizona, Oregon
7	Nebraska	23-6	UCLA, Michigan St, Purdue (2), Minnesota, Penn St	Iowa St, Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota
8	Texas	23-4	San Diego, Florida, Minnesota,  Louisville, Kansas (2), Iowa St	Penn St, Minnesota, *Illinois, Iowa St
9	Minnesota	24-7	Texas, Dayton, Michigan St, Purdue, Ohio St, Nebraska	Texas, *Kansas St, Penn St (2), Nebraska, Michigan St, Michigan
10	Florida State	27-3	Iowa St, Ohio St, Florida, Miami	*Pepperdine, Miami, *North Carolina
11	Hawai’i	26-2	Stanford	*California, UCLA
12	Louisville	29-3	Purdue, Western Kentucky	Penn St, *Notre Dame, Texas
13	Florida	25-4	--	Texas, Stanford, Florida St, *Tennessee
14	Miami (FL)	25-5	Florida St	*Illinois St, Lousiville, *Virginia Tech, *North Carolina, Florida St
15	BYU	26-3	San Diego	*St Mary’s, Santa Clara, *San Diego St
16	San Diego	21-6	BYU	Texas, USC, *St  Mary’s, Santa Clara, BYU

Yes, Washington looks like a high pick, but remember that—in just the past three weeks, Washington beat Oregon, Oregon beat UCLA, UCLA beat USC, USC beat Stanford and Stanford beat Washington. With few exceptions, those five teams only lose to each other.

If the committee used our rankings, here’s how the teams would be paired if they advance to the Sweet 16:

1	Penn St
16	San Diego
8	Texas
9	Minnesota
2	Stanford
15	BYU
7	Nebraska
10	Florida State
3	Oregon
14	Miami
6	UCLA
11	Hawai’i
4	Washington
13	Florida
5	USC
12	Louisville

Perhaps you see the problem. This year’s regionals (selected years in advance) are in West Lafayette, Indiana, Berkeley, Austin and Omaha. Of our top four picks, only #2 Stanford is near one of the sites (Berkeley). There is no way, however, the committee won’t place Nebraska in Omaha and Texas in Austin.

Taking reality into consideration, here is our compromise seeding:

W Lafayette
1	Penn St
16	San Diego
8	Florida St
9	Minnesota
Berkeley
2	Stanford
15	BYU
7	USC
10	Hawai’i
Austin
3	Oregon
14	Miami
6	Texas
11	UCLA
Omaha
4	Washington
13	Florida
5	Nebraska
12	Louisville

Let’s make it clear, however:

• There is absolutely no way the committee will seed Washington as high as #4.
• It will likely make the mistake it made last year and give too many Big-12 teams good seeds (especially underserving Kansas and probably Iowa State.)
• It will likely overlook either BYU or San Diego or both in the top 16. No way it will include Miami.
• It will rank Louisville and Hawai’i too high, and several Pac-12 schools too low

Last season, by the way, only one of the committee’s top four seeds (#3 Illinois) reached the Final Four. Can it do better this year?

Will Washington's Gabbi Parker be staring down another home match in 2012?
-Volleyblog Seattle photo by Leslie Hamann