Pac-12 | Washington/Washington State volleyball match packed with meaning

Figuring out postseason possibilities throughout Division 1

• next: Washington State @ #5 Washington | November 29 | 8PM |Pac-12 Networks
• NCAA Tournament Selection | December 1 | 6:30PM | ESPNU

[11.30.13 | 1PM | CORRECTION: The Nebraska Regional will be hosted in Lincoln, not Omaha]

One team will be a serious tournament contender. The other will likely be ending its season. But the final match of the Pac-12 2013 season—Washington State at Washington—will have plenty on the line.

How many UW and WSU fans will head to Hec Ed after the Apple Cup?
-photo by Shutter Geeks Photography

NCAA TOURNAMENT SEEDING AND THE RPI

This Sunday, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will choose 64 teams, then seed the top 16. Those 16 will each host the tournament’s first two rounds. Rounds 3 & 4—the Regionals—will be hosted by USC, Nebraska [in Omaha Lincoln], Illinois and Kentucky; four seeded teams will be assigned to each Regional bracket. Rounds 5 & 6—the Final Four—will be hosted by Washington at Seattle’s Key Arena.

There are 31 Division 1 conferences, and the champions of each get automatic bids. The remaining 33 at-large teams—and the 16 seeds—will be determined by a variety of factors, none more important than the RPI. The RPI, or “Ratings Percentage Index,” is a formula that gives a team’s win/loss percentage 25% weight, a team’s opponents’ win/loss percentage 50% weight, and a team’s opponents’ opponents’ win/loss percentage 25% weight. Each Division 1 team is ranked 1 through 332. Importantly, an opponent’s RPI is NOT a factor, only its winning percentage. [see also: NCAA RPI explanation]

WASHINGTON’S SEEDING

On Monday of this week, Washington’s RPI was #3, trailing only #1 Texas and #2 Penn State. The Huskies have just two losses, and one of the top winning percentages in the nation (after #20 Colorado State lost Wednesday night to #105 San Diego State, #5 Missouri is the only undefeated team in the nation.) If UW loses to WSU, its RPI will take a hit. It could drop slightly in any event, because this week’s opponents—#136 Oregon State (9-21) and #65 Washington State (18-14) have relatively weak records, and each played fairly low-ranked nonconference opponents. Washington, by the way, benefits each time one of its nonconference opponents picks up a win, and got an extra boost with #17 Illinois’ resurgence (and its tough schedule), plus better-than-expected seasons from #215 Seattle U (13-20) and #250 Coppin State (15-16).

THE TOP FOUR SEEDS

#1 Texas and #2 Penn State have all but wrapped up two of the Regional #1 seeds, though Penn State still plays #8 Nebraska Saturday night in Lincoln. If Washington defeats WSU, it should earn a third #1; if it loses, and #7 Stanford beats #30 Cal, then the Cardinal will likely grab that #1. The fourth top seed should go to undefeated Missouri, but Florida—who Mizzou defeated twice—has the higher RPI, 4 to 5. How is that possible? Florida’s only other loss is to Penn State; almost every preseason, Florida, Penn State, Texas and Stanford play each other and eventually benefit from that opponent’s win/loss percentage bump.

SEEDS 5-8

The top eight teams should be some combination of Texas, Penn State, Washington, Missouri, Stanford, Florida, USC and Nebraska.

SEEDS 9-16

The “second eight” seeded teams are sure to include #9 Kentucky, #13 Minnesota and #12 Kansas. #10 Marquette will join them if it wins the Big East tournament. #11 Hawai’i may fall in this group, but despite its RPI of 11, it won’t be conference champ for the first time in what seems like forever (#59 UC Santa Barbara has the inside track.) The NCAA is also historically reluctant to have teams fly to Honolulu. Wisconsin’s RPI is 14, but it has 8 Big Ten losses and few attention-getting wins. San Diego has the 15th RPI, and Creighton is 16^th, but both would have to resolve scheduling conflicts with their basketball teams if either were to host. #17 Illinois might be an appealing seed to the NCAA, since the Regionals will also be in Champaign the following week. #18 Duke might also make a case as the (likely) ACC champion.

BEST OF THE REST

One advantage of being one of the four top seeds is the chance to avoid difficult early-round matchups. Washington almost always hosts, but its lower seed in previous seasons has helped the NCAA justify sending a powerhouse like Hawai’i to Seattle (Washington won each time, but it took five sets in 2012.)

Because there are no seeds beyond the top 16, the Committee can send other top teams almost wherever it wants. Since at least three—Washington, Stanford and USC—west coast schools will host, with another two—Hawai’i and San Diego—possible, dangerous non-seeded teams could come from almost anywhere. Two will likely come from the San Diego/Creighton/Illinois/Duke quartet (whichever two don’t host). Other big names could include #19 Florida State, #29 Colorado State, #21 North Carolina, #29 Purdue and #31 BYU. The committee will not, by the way, send conference schools against each other in the first two rounds, so #24 Arizona, #25 Oregon, #26 Utah and #30 Cal will not be in Seattle.

Washington State may be well beyond the bubble at #65, especially after its loss Wednesday to Oregon. In some ways, then, their rivalry match against Washington is a way to end the season with a bang. WSU is 19-14, with recent upset wins against USC and Cal. The Cougars would like to reach the 20-win benchmark. They also know that, in recent years, UW teams have let down at home late in the year, losing to Arizona State last season, and to Oregon a few years back. 

And, don't forget, plenty of WSU fans will have spent much of the day next door at Husky Stadium for football's Apple Cup ... and may just want to join the crowd at Hec Ed.

NOT SO BEST OF THE REST

Who might seeded teams like to see in their gym? Underperforming teams with high RPIs include #22 Iowa State, #23 Oklahoma, #27 Michigan State and #28 Michigan. A big chunk of SEC teams with unimpressive records have somehow managed decent RPIs, including #32 Texas A&M, #33 Alabama, #34 LSU, #37 Arkansas and #40 Georgia.

LOW RPI AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS

When figuring out which 64 teams will be selected, you can’t simply look at RPIs 1 through 64. That’s because the champions of several conferences have weaker RPIs, but are nonetheless guaranteed a slot. This season, that will be the case with 16 teams, from #68 College of Charleston all the way through #278 Alabama State. [See chart, below] The champion of the Big Sky Conference—to be determined Saturday—won’t have an RPI higher than 84.

So, when doing the math, teams with an RPI worse than 48 that are not conference champs are on the bubble. That group includes #49 Ohio State (which in no way deserves a bid after losing at least 14 conference matches,) #51 Miami (coached by Keno Gandara, formerly a UW assistant), and #54 Colorado (one of only two teams to defeat Washington so far this season). If any team does push through, it could be at the expense of #48 Arizona State.

A real head-scratcher is #42 UCLA. The Bruins have had a dreadful season, and could finish at 15-15—barely meeting the .500 threshold required for an at-large bid. Both Arizona State and Colorado will finish ahead of UCLA in the conference standings, but either one could be out and the Bruins in.

THE LIST

Here, then, are the RPI rankings as of November 25. A new list will be compiled Sunday, and there will undoubtedly be some movement, although likely not more than 3-4 places.

Teams in green have clinched an automatic bid. Teams in orange have clinched at least a share of their conference title. Teams in red are still mathematically in the running to tie or win their conference title. Teams in yellow are still playing in their conference tournament (only the highest-RPI teams still playing in tournaments are included.

RPI	School	Conference
1	Texas	Big 12
2	Penn St	Big Ten
3	Washington	Pac-12
4	Florida	SEC
5	Missouri	SEC
6	Southern Cal	Pac-12
7	Stanford	Pac-12
8	Nebraska	Big Ten
9	Kentucky	SEC
10	Marquette	Big East
11	Hawai’i	Big West
12	Kansas	Big 12
13	Minnesota	Big Ten
14	Wisconsin	Big Ten
15	San Diego	West Coast
16	Creighton	Big East
17	Illinois	Big Ten
18	Duke	ACC
19	Florida St	ACC
20	Colorado St	Mountain West
21	North Carolina	ACC
22	Iowa St	Big 12
23	Oklahoma	Big 12
24	Arizona	Pac-12
25	Oregon	Pac-12
26	Utah	Pac-12
27	Michigan St	Big Ten
28	Michigan	Big Ten
29	Purdue	Big Ten
30	California	Pac-12
31	BYU	West Coast
32	Texas A&M	SEC
33	Alabama	SEC
34	LSU	SEC
35	Ohio	Mid-American
36	Louisville	American Athletic
37	Arkansas	SEC
38	CS Northridge	Big West
39	Tulsa	Conference USA
40	Georgia	SEC
41	Butler	Big East
42	UCLA	Pac-12
43	Yale	Ivy
44	American	Patriot
45	Central Arkansas	Southland
46	Wichita St	Missouri Valley
47	UTSA	Conference USA
48	Arizona St	Pac-12
49	Ohio St	Big Ten
50	Colgate	Patriot
51	Miami	ACC
52	North Carolina St	ACC
53	Xavier	Big East
54	Colorado	Pac-12
55	UNI	Missouri Valley
56	Tulane	Conference USA
57	Northwestern	Big Ten
58	Kansas St	Big 12
59	UCSB	Big West
60	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt
61	St Mary’s	West Coast
62	Virginia Tech	ACC
63	Auburn	SEC
64	VCU	Atlantic 10
65	Washington St	Pac-12
66	Ball St	Mid-American
67	Virginia	ACC
68	Col of Charleston	Colonial
70	Lipscomb	Atlantic Sun
73	Georgia Southern	Southern
79	Milwaukee	Horizon
84	Portland St	Big Sky
87	LIU Brooklyn	Northeast
91	Morehead St	Ohio Valley
94	New Mexico St	WAC
96	Jacksonville	Atlantic Sun
98	Duquesne	Atlantic 10
104	Texas St	Sun Belt
109	IUPUI	Summit
156	Fairfield	Metro Atlantic
159	Radford	Big South
190	Hampton	Mid-Eastern
205	New Hampshire	America East
278	Alabama St	Southwestern

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Photos courtesy Shutter Geeks Photography