Olympics | USA vs. South Korea: Comparing the big guns

TWO GREAT HITTERS MAY BE KEY

USA vs. South Korea (semifinals): Thursday, August 9, 7:00am (Pacific)

Thursday’s semifinal showdown between USA (6-0) and South Korea (3-3) features the two best women hitters in the world. Their numbers so far offer some intriguing lessons.

Destinee Hooker (19) challenges Yeon-Koung Kim (10)
during USA's 3-1 pool play victory
-Reuters

South Korea’s Yeon-Koung Kim has the most attempts (by far) of any player in the 2012 Olympics, averaging 52 attempts per match. She also has the most kills, averaging 24.3 per match.

USA’s Destinee Hooker ranks fifth in attempts (37.3) and third in kills (17.0 per match). Hooker has the tournament’s second-best hitting percentage so far (.357), ahead of third place Kim (.342).

First, let’s compare the raw numbers.

Notice that Korea has played 25 sets, five more than USA. Kim is averaging 5.84 kills per set and 1.52 errors per set on 12.6 attempts per set. Hooker’s set averages are 5.1 kills, 1.1 errors and 11.2 attempts. On a per-set basis, the two are not that far apart, but Hooker is more efficient.

The chart below is arranged to compare performances against common opponents. In order, USA played Korea, Brazil, China, Turkey, Serbia and Dominican Republic. Notice how Hooker’s hitting percentage increases each match (with the exception of Serbia, whom USA played after it had clinched the Pool B title.)

Korea played, in order, USA, Serbia, Brazil, Turkey, China and Italy. After peaking against Serbia, Kim’s hitting average has dropped each match.

[Numbers in each box represent kills/errors/attempts (average)]

	Yeon-Koung Kim	Destinee Hooker
USA (L 1-3)	27/8/63 (.301)	19/4/42 (.357)	Korea (W 3-1)
Brazil (W 3-0)	21/5/47 (.340)	22/3/45 (.422)	Brazil (W 3-1)
China (L 2-3)	27/11/54 (.296)	17/7/40 (.250)	China (W 3-0)
Turkey (L 2-3)	20/5/50 (.300)	17/1/38 (.421)	Turkey (W 3-0)
Serbia (W 3-1)	28/3/42 (.595)	12/2/21 (.476)	Serbia (W 3-0)
Italy (W 3-1)	23/6/59 (.288)
		15/5/38 (.263)	DomRep (W 3-0)
W3, L3 (14-11)	146/38/315 (.342)	102/22/224 (.357)	W6, L0 (18-2)

Second, let’s compare the relative contributions of the two hitters to their teams.

During these Olympics, Kim had 36% of all her team’s attempts (315/872). Tellingly, she has 42% of her team’s kills (146/345). That means, of course, that Korea would love to get Kim the ball as often as possible, since its other attackers hit far below Kim’s average.

Notice, however, where Hooker fits in. She’s had 33% of USA’s attempts (224/679) … and 33% of USA’s kills (102/310.) That means that—on average—USA’s hitting is far better balanced.

[The numbers in each box are the player’s kills/total team kills (percentage) on the top row, and the player’s attempts/team attempts (percentage) on the bottom row]

	Yeon-Koung Kim	Destinee Hooker
USA (L 1-3)	27/59 (.458) 63/167 (.377)	19/58 (.328) 42/141 (.298)	Korea (W 3-1)
Brazil (W 3-0)	21/49 (.429) 47/155 (.303)	22/66 (.333) 45/143 (.315)	Brazil (W 3-1)
China (L 2-3)	27/68 (.397) 54/160 (.338)	17/56 (.304) 40/119 (.336)	China (W 3-0)
Turkey (L 2-3)	20/51 (.392) 50/132 (.379)	17/46 (.370) 38/107 (.355)	Turkey (W 3-0)
Serbia (W 3-1)	28/56 (.500) 42/113 (.372)	12/41 (.293) 21/87 (.241)	Serbia (W 3-0)
Italy (W 3-1)	23/62 (.371) 59/145 (.407)
		15/43 (.348) 38/100 (.380)	Dom Rep (W 3-0)
W3, L3 (14-11)	146/345 (.423) 315/872 (.361)	102/310 (.329) 224/679 (.329)	W6, L0 (18-2)

And, so … one key to beating Korea is to make it set players other than Kim. The only sure-fire way to do that are to:

Serve tough, forcing poor receptions and giving Korea’s setter fewer options;

Receive well, allowing USA’s setters to stay in system and terminate rallies the first time;

Send tough free balls, making it hard for Korea to launch a quick counter-attack.

Even if Kim gets a boatload of attempts, she’ll have to turn around her dramatic decline in efficiency. If USA can tire her out, unforced errors could result.

I’m going with USA in four sets. I think they’ll get a rematch with Brazil in Saturday’s gold medal match.