Monday, November 21, 2011

National power ratings: how the polls got it wrong


Yet again, the D1 Volleyball polls are predictable … and sometimes spectacularly wrong.

In this week’s AVCA Coaches Poll, released a few minutes ago, voters got it mostly right with USC (#1), UCLA (#4), Illinois (#7), California (#10) and Northern Iowa (#13.)
But collectively, the voters grossly underestimated Purdue (#8), Penn State (#9) and Oregon (#13).

In doing so, they overestimated Nebraska (#2), Texas (#5), and Stanford (#6). And they really, really missed the boat on Hawai’i (#3)

Volleyblog Seattle rated its top 12 teams (plus Northern Iowa) by comparing the top teams’ records—and quality of competition—for each team’s last eight matches. Here’s how we see it:

team
(poll rank)
previous eight
previous 8 vs.
ranked teams

1. USC (1)
7-1
3-1

Winners of 7 in a row in nation’s best conference, including wins against Oregon, Washington & Cal
2. Purdue (8)
7-1
4-1

Impressive 10-match win streak finally snapped Saturday by Penn State
3. UCLA (4)
6-2
3-1

Ugly loss to unranked Arizona and narrow loss to ranked Oregon, but quality wins over Cal, Stanford and Washington
4. Penn State (9)
6-2
3-1

Narrow loss to unranked Wisconsin and to highly-ranked Illinois; big wins against Purdue & Nebraska
5. Nebraska (2)
6-2
3-2

Lost to highly-ranked Penn State & Purdue, but beat lower-ranked Ohio State, Michigan & Minnesota
6. Oregon (13)
6-2
3-1

Collapsed against Utah and lost to USC, but impressive recent wins against UCLA, Stanford & Cal
7. Texas (5)
8-0
1-0

Big fish in a small pond; beat only one ranked opponent this month, Iowa State
8. Illinois (7)
5-3
3-2

An ugly loss to unranked Michigan St sandwiched between decent wins against Penn St, and lower-ranked Ohio St and Michigan
9. Washington (11)
5-3
1-3

Losses to USC, UCLA and Cal; decisive win against Stanford
10. Stanford (6)
5-3
1-3

Losses to UCLA, Washington and Oregon; impressive—but long-ago—win against USC
11. California (10)
4-4
1-3

Losses to USC, UCLA and Oregon, plus stinker against Oregon State; a win against Washington
12. Hawai’I (3)
8-0
0-0

Big fish in an empty pond; Rainbow Wahine play weakest schedule this side of Northern Iowa
13. No Iowa (12)
8-0
0-0

Big fish in an empty pond; Panthers play weakest schedule this side of Hawai’i



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