Selection Sunday: RPI (round three) | Last season’s lessons

[Need a RPI primer? See Selection Sunday (round two) | A Primer]

As volleyball fans debate which 16 teams should be seeded in the 2011 D1 NCAA Volleyball Tournament, let’s take a moment to remember 2010.

The NCAA seeded Penn State fourth last season, but the Nittany Lions won the title by defeating three other seeded teams (#7 California, #9 Texas and #12 Duke.) The selection committee’s other top three seeds (#1 Florida, #2 Nebraska, #3 Stanford) failed to make it to the Final Four; only Stanford got as far as the Elite Eight.

Half of last year’s top eight seeded teams failed to reach the Elite Eight (#1 Florida, #2 Nebraska, #5 Northern Iowa, #8 Illinois.) Five of last year’s 16 seeded team did not make it to the Sweet Sixteen (#5 Northern Iowa, #11 Tennessee, #13 LSU, #14 Dayton, #15 Hawai’i).

There were groans from the Pac-10 and Big Ten last season when teams from notoriously weak conferences were included in the 16 seeds. #5 Northern Iowa proved to be a huge bust, #14 Dayton showed it didn’t belong, and the SEC demonstrated once again that it didn’t deserve to have three seeded teams (#1 Florida, #11 Tennessee, #13 LSU) or, for that matter, did not deserve a total of six teams in the tournament.

Fans in Hawai’i complained they were seeded too low at #15, but the team promptly lost in the second round to unseeded Washington (which then knocked off #2 Nebraska before losing to #7 California, the eventual national runner up.)

Three teams truly excelled in last year’s tournament when measured by wins over other seeded teams. Penn State beat three seeds: #12 Duke, #9 Texas and #7 California. California overcame #10 Minnesota and #6 USC. And Washington pulled off the biggest upset of all, defeating #2 Nebraska after sweeping #15 Hawai’i.

A breakdown of how well the selection committee evaluated the 2010 field:

Florida—from the less-than-powerful SEC—was seeded #1. The Gators lost 0-3 in the Sweet Sixteen to #16 Purdue. The other five SEC teams lost in either the first or second rounds.

Nebraska—then in the Big-12—was seeded #2. The Huskers lost 1-3 to unseeded Washington, also in the Sweet Sixteen.

#3 Stanford lost 2-3 in the Elite Eight to #6 USC.  Half the Elite Eight teams (Stanford, USC, Washington, California) were from the Pac-10, but the brackets were set up to ensure that they’d have to knock two out before the Final Four, and another before the Championship.

#4 Penn State won its fourth consecutive National Championship, and was the only top four seed to advance to the Final Four.

#5 Northern Iowa lost 2-3 in the first round to unranked Missouri. Once again in 2011, the RPI favors a team like Northern Iowa, which plays in the oh-so-modest Missouri Valley Conference, over teams from the Pac-12. (In last week’s RPI, Northern Iowa was ranked #6; ahead of every other Pac-12 team, including conference champion USC (ranked #9.)

#6 USC lost 0-3 in the National Semifinals to #7 California.

#7 California lost 0-3 in the National Championship to #4 Penn State.

#8 Illinois lost 2-3 in the Sweet Sixteen to #9 Texas.

#9 Texas lost 0-3 in the National Semifinals to #4 Penn State.

#10 Minnesota lost 0-3 in the Sweet Sixteen to #7 California.

#11 Tennessee lost 2-3 in the second round to unranked Indiana.

#12 Duke lost 1-3 in the Elite Eight to #4 Penn State.

#13 LSU lost 0-3 in the first round to unranked Tulsa.

#14 Dayton lost 2-3 in the second round to unranked Ohio State.

#15 Hawai’i lost 0-3 in the second round to unranked Washington.

#16 Purdue lost 1-3 in the Elite Eight to #9 Texas.

Unseeded Washington lost 0-3 in the Elite Eight to #7 California.

Unseeded Ohio State lost 1-3 in the Sweet Sixteen to #3 Stanford.

Unseeded Indiana lost 0-3 in the Sweet Sixteen to #6 USC.

Unseeded Oklahoma lost 0-3 in the Sweet Sixteen to # 4 Penn State.

Unseeded Missouri lost 1-3 to in the Sweet Sixteen #12 Duke.

It should be said that the AVCA Coaches’ poll did not do much better at forecasting the eventual order of finish. Only one of the coaches’ top four (AVCA #2 California) made the Final Four; four others reached the Elite Eight (AVCA #4 Stanford, #6 USC, #7 Penn State and #8 Texas.)

In past seasons, the Selection Committee has been told not to consider teams’ success or failure in previous tournaments. It will be interesting to see whether the committee can truly forget last year’s results.

[THANKS TO MY SEATTLE TIMES NEWS PARTNER COLLEAGUE TERRY WOOD FOR INSPIRATION AND RESEARCH FOR THIS POST]

[Volleyblog Seattle photo by Leslie Hamann]